When Homes Become Uninhabitable: Climate Migration from Afghanistan to Bangladesh
In the past year alone, climate hazards have affected nine million Afghans, while in Bangladesh, more than 7.7 million people have been displaced due to climate-related challenges. Projections indicate that by 2050, approximately 13.3 million Bangladeshis – about 1 in 7 – will be displaced as a direct consequence of climate change (IOM Afghanistan, 2025; Rahman, 2023). Across South Asia, the escalating effects of climate change have emerged as a critical driver of instability, triggering forced migration, institutional breakdowns, and localized tensions (Dhawan, 2025). Environmental stressors, including melting glaciers, rising sea levels, and extreme weather events, have disrupted power supplies and agricultural systems, compelling many rural communities to migrate to urban centers. South Asian governments must act decisively to support climate migrants before millions more are forced to move. Failure to do so will have destabilizing consequences, both regionally and globally.
The convergence of climate crises and weak governance threatens food security, public health, livelihoods – including farming and fishing – and interstate relations, thereby deepening social and economic inequality (World Food Program, 2023). Climate-induced migration also carries significant implications for regional security, as displaced populations are forced to navigate new urban environments where religious, ethnic, and linguistic identities shape social dynamics. These shifts heighten the risk of identity-politics-driven conflict, reshaping political power relations within host societies (Vishwanath et al., 2024; Nordqvist & Krampe, 2018).
In Tripura, India, for example, increasing competition over scarce natural resources and changing religious demographics have contributed to outbreaks of violence between migrants and local populations (Nordqvist & Krampe, 2018). Similarly, in Bangladesh, rising sea levels and recurrent cyclones have resulted in severe flooding and the destruction of farmland. The agricultural sector has been severely impacted, while water and energy systems have suffered substantial damage. Consequently, many rural residents from coastal regions such as Barisal and Khulna have been forced to relocate to urban centers like Dhaka in search of stability and employment (Rojas, 2025).
Displaced populations – often lacking stable incomes or employment – are particularly vulnerable to recruitment by extremist organizations, including the Taliban, exacerbating national security concerns (Dasilva, 2021). Urban job markets are also under strain, as some elites exploit displaced populations as sources of cheaper labor, aggravating class tensions and creating conditions ripe for social unrest.
Regional cooperation is therefore essential to address environmentally driven displacement. Rural-to-urban migration in India and Bangladesh has intensified population pressures in already densely populated areas, increasing competition over limited resources and deepening poverty. To mitigate instability, regional governments must strengthen early warning systems, enhance cross-border disaster coordination, improve data sharing on water (especially under the Indus Waters Treaty), climate, and migration, and integrate environmental risks into both foreign policy and national security frameworks.
While some may argue that climate change is a localized or historical phenomenon, today’s patterns of climate-induced displacement are distinct – faster, larger in scale, and increasingly global. Preventing further displacement requires immediate and coordinated action. Recognizing and protecting climate migrants is not an act of charity but an issue of justice. The international community played a role in creating this crisis; at the very least, it can support those now bearing its consequences.
