Landslide in Hungary: Why Magyar’s Victory Brings a Cautious Hope for Ukrainian Refugees
By Joshua Marsh
On Sunday night, April 12th, Hungarians pulled off a historic feat in the voting booth – putting an end to Viktor Orbán’s 16-year premiership. Despite Orbán’s generous endorsements from the American, Italian, and Czech governments, the ruling Fidesz party witnessed a crushing defeat in parliamentary elections. In a monumental pivot, Péter Magyar, a former insider in the Orbán government, achieved a two-thirds majority for the Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) in their debut electoral appearance. As millions welcome this new era in Hungarian democracy, what Magyar’s victory means for Ukrainians, especially refugees, is another story. In principle, Magyar has unequivocally expressed his support for Ukraine in the ongoing Russian invasion. Such a stance contrasts with that of the outgoing incumbent, who has largely been viewed as peddling Kremlin talking points in recent years. While Magyar’s victory is a step towards greater Hungarian-Ukrainian cooperation, the effects on the ground for refugees must be viewed with a cautious approach.
Orbán’s Ousting and Recent Reputation
At the outset of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Orbán expressed his condemnation in a statement on Facebook in conjunction with fellow NATO member nations. The very next month, Hungary voted along with 140 other countries in the UN General Assembly to condemn Russia’s invasion and recognition of the breakaway states in Luhansk and Donetsk. However, since 2022, Orbán has gradually become a bulwark to the continuance of EU-backed support for Ukraine, and even has been viewed as sympathetic to the Kremlin’s rhetoric. In an interview shortly before parliamentary elections, he was asked whether he, in the place of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, would cede territory to Russia in exchange for the cessation of hostilities. Bluntly, Orbán responded, “I’m lucky enough not to be Zelenskyy.”
Beyond mere statements, Orbán has additionally served as an impediment in recent years, especially regarding the distribution of aid and his continued blockage of votes, which would ultimately accelerate Ukraine’s integration into the EU. Most recently, Orbán’s outgoing government in March had defiantly pushed back against the repeated requests to unblock a loan of 90 billion euros to Ukraine from the European Council. Although the loan was approved in December, Orbán has prevented its implementation, citing the issue of the Druzhba pipeline, which was damaged by Russia in January, further alleging that Ukraine had been intentionally delaying repairs. Broadly, Orbán has consistently opposed the furtherance of any integrative efforts towards Ukrainian membership in the EU, pushing that such integration would only exacerbate and prolong the current war in Ukraine. While Orbán cites factors of economic stability and national security as the primary motivations behind these controversial actions, his 2026 electoral campaign harked back to a prevailing anti-Ukrainian sentiment, complicating matters for Ukrainian refugees living in Hungary.
The origins of anti-Ukrainian sentiment within Hungary precede the premiership of Orbán, embedded in longstanding conflicts over the treatment of ethnic Hungarians in Ukraine. Yet, the capitalization of anti-Ukrainian resentment remained at the forefront of Hungary’s parliamentary elections, as made apparent in Fidesz’s electoral campaign to smear Magyar as a ‘pro-war’ candidate. Vlada Hollósi, a blogger and Ukrainian refugee living in Budapest, expressed her unease in the past year, seeing the electoral developments regarding the image of Ukraine. She iterated that she had become saddened by the fact that “[her] second home is against the home [she] lost.” In addition to billboards endorsing skepticism around the Ukrainian and the EU, Ukrainian refugees became a target as the Fidesz party endorsed a petition which would close borders and reject refugees from Ukraine. Violetta Rendesi, a Fidesz member, in addition to her objection to Ukrainian membership into the EU or NATO, expressed that such membership would “bring us a whole heap of refugees and problems.” However, with Orbán now defeated, some view Magyar’s election as a step forward towards the assistance of Ukraine and its refugees, yet it comes accompanied by cautious hesitancy.
Magyar’s Victory: A Mixed Future for Ukraine
In a speech shortly after preliminary results indicated his landslide victory, now-PM Magyar gave a speech that stood in direct contrast to the recent words of his predecessor. Magyar expressed his belief that in every way, Ukraine had the right to act in the interests of territorial integrity, as it is unquestionably the victim in the context of the current war with Russia. More so, Magyar decried the comments of Fidesz members and others who would demand that Ukraine acquiesce to territorial concessions, affirming Ukraine’s right to self-determination. Magyar went further to expound that this attitude would insult the memory of the 1956 Hungarian revolution against the USSR, posing the question to Hungarians who support territorial concessions, “What would happen if Russia attacked Hungary, which Hungarian county would they give up?” Although such statements project a complete pivot from the indifference and avoidance of Orbán, Magyar’s government has already committed to major reforms that would effectively undo the impediments established by Orbán.
Magyar’s succession, beyond matters of Ukrainians and refugees, has been viewed as a significant step towards the restoration of Hungarian democracy and away from the ‘illiberal’ autocracy that Orbán had established for the last 16 years. For instance, Magyar vowed to suspend the state-financed media MTVA, which he labelled a ‘factory of lies,’ further adding that, “what has been happening here since 2010 is something that Goebbels or the North Korean leadership would admire.” In regard to his more tangible commitments towards Ukraine, Magyar’s government has committed to unfreezing the 90 billion loan, which had been opposed by Orbán’s administration. With Magyar in place of Orbán, Ukraine’s opposition in the EU has been reduced to that of Slovakia and Czechia, with the incoming Bulgarian government serving to fill the vacuum of Hungary’s Orbán. Nevertheless, Magyar, in many ways, still poses potential roadblocks to an accelerated change in Hungary’s approach to the crisis in Ukraine.
As a former member of Orbán’s defeated Fidesz party, Magyar, too, expressed concern on the issue of “irregular migration,” reportedly saying that he would “like even less immigration to Hungary than the previous government.” Additionally, while Magyar had indeed indicated that Hungary would rescind its opposition to Ukraine’s loan, it would not contribute further funding, citing pressing budgetary constraints Hungary was already facing. In summary, Magyar has framed his government around a commitment towards national sovereignty, despite the labels the Orbán government has impressed upon it. Rather than entertain Orbán’s campaign that the Magyar government was working against Hungary’s interests, Magyar inversely accused Orbán’s government of colluding with Russia, endorsing an investigation to be made of potential treason that betrayed “Hungarian and European interests.” Magyar, too, pushed for the reopening of the Druzhba pipeline and also sought to reinvigorate relations with Ukraine while stressing his emphasis on the minority rights of Hungarians in Ukraine. Regardless, Magyar’s approach to Ukrainian relations, and by extension refugees, retains a nature of practical and balanced support, differing from the antagonistic rhetoric that had emanated from the office of Orbán.
Looking Forward
Sergey Sydorenko, a Ukrainian journalist from European Pravda, discussed the circulating concerns regarding Magyar’s comments and whether Magyar would be ‘another Orbán.’ In the words of Sydorenko, the comments of Magyar present “no such cause for alarm” as his comments still project a willingness to cooperate with Ukraine in a mutually beneficial manner. Both Zelenskyy and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha were some of the first figures to congratulate Magyar on his victory, overall expressing a heightened optimism around Magyar’s positive outlook for Ukraine. While much room for improvement still exists on the grounds of humanitarian aid and assistance, Ukrainian refugees have most assuredly obtained a more negotiable partner in Budapest.
The writer is a research and advocacy intern, covering South America and Europe at Displaced International.
